This market resolves YES if anyone posts a FEN-notated position, along with a sequence of 10 moves (for each player) from that position, such that:
According to the lichess default bot (at time of market creation), the starting evaluation is at least +5.0 in white's favor,
For each of the moves for white, it's the top recommended move by the default lichess engine in that position.
at the end of the sequence, the default lichess evaluation is equal or shows an advantage for black.
The current lichess default analysis bot has the following parameters. If these become unavailable, I'll try to approximate them as closely as possible:
If this doesn't happen by the close date 12/31/2024, I'll resolve NO
1,000
1.00A couple of comments. First, I think Lichess runs its analysis locally, so the answer is going to depend on your computer and what other stuff your computer is doing.
Second, the easiest way to fulfill the stated criteria wouldn't be a position where stockfish blunders a +5 advantage, but rather a difficult drawn endgame that Stockfish misevaluates as completely winning. I know such positions exist, although +5 is quite steep so I'm not quite sure. I've definitely seen +4 in some TCEC game, but probably for a different version of stockfish. Anyway, the chances that such a position exists is very very good, but actually finding one will be a lot of work, which is why I'm not betting in this market.