I'm interested in how long Manifold thinks humanity will have a non-negligible chance of surviving. Although many people here are pretty doomy, most would probably agree we don't have a negligible chance of living to 2050 or 2100. But how long does that hold?

If we successfully get past AGI, our per-year probability of extinction will probably drastically decrease. Is this enough to carry us all the way to the heat death of the universe, or will even human-aligned AGI be unable to defend against every threat to the survival of humanity?

I would count "humanity" as any group of entities that generally consider themselves to share a common identity with people living today, passed down via an unbroken chain of succession. This could include digital minds, if those minds consider themselves to be "descended from humanity."

If 1 million AD isn't far enough in the future to get the odds as low as 2% or so, I may add even more options.

If we actually make it to December 31, 9999, I (or more likely a mod) will extend the resolution date. I assume resolution dates past 9999 would be included as a feature of Manifold by then.

I may bet in this market.