Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first European NATO member state that Russia attacks and/or occupies between May 23, 2025, and December 31, 2029. An "attack" is defined as a military assault involving Russian armed forces crossing into the territory of a NATO member state. "Occupation" refers to Russian forces establishing control over any part of a NATO member state's territory. The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event. If no such attack or occupation occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "Not on NATO area/Not at all."

Background

Tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Several NATO member states, especially those bordering Russia, have expressed concerns about potential aggression. For instance, in February 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia might attack a NATO country from Belarus as early as next year. (euronews.com) Additionally, in October 2024, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl suggested that Russia could attack NATO by the end of the decade. (euronews.com)

In response to these threats, NATO has bolstered its eastern defenses. Germany, for example, inaugurated its first permanent military brigade abroad since World War II, stationed in Lithuania, to reinforce Baltic security. (ft.com) Furthermore, the Baltic states have initiated the construction of the Baltic Defence Line, a series of defensive installations along their borders with Russia and Belarus. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

While the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are geographically closest to Russia and have historical contexts that might make them potential targets, other NATO member states with strategic significance, such as Poland and Finland, could also be at risk. It's important to monitor ongoing geopolitical developments, military activities, and diplomatic relations in the region to assess the likelihood of any potential aggression.