This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme-nunsfre4wz
1,000
1.00I tried to look up predictions of whether 2033 will be an El Nino year, and the first thing that comes up is the "hypothetical weather wiki": https://hypotheticalweather.fandom.com/wiki/2033-2034_Very_Strong_El_Nino
The rule that if it exists, there's a wiki on it, has been exhausted, so now we have to make wikis on things that don't even exist.