Exhibit 4 from McKinsey & Co's The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value resolves this Yes I believe.

For example:

• C-level execs ("Regularly use for work" + "Regularly use for work and outside of work" + "Regularly use outside of work"):

  • 2023. (13 + 16 + 8) = 35%

  • 2024. (15 + 26 + 15) = 56%

cc: @FUTURESEARCH

@mods please resolve if you agree, thank you.

@vitamind the 15% using it outside work probably shouldn't count.

Edit: Ignore

@vitamind @FUTURESEARCH please resolve this

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 74%, market is 59%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 69%, market is 59%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 59%.

Should this market refer to the end of 2024, if it's a 2024 tournament?

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 54%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 50%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 55.00000000000001%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 95%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 74%, market is 60%.

40%

85%

65%

20%. While generative AI has the potential to be a valuable tool for managers, it is unlikely that more than 50% of global managers from Fortune 500 companies will be using it regularly by June 30, 2025. This is because generative AI is still a relatively new technology, and there are some significant challenges to its widespread adoption.