I will use the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-ae52e67046b9

I made this market without them knowing, but will give them the mana I get from new voters in the first week to compensate them, or I migh resolve this question to N/A if anyone gets mad for my copying their market into the new format.

Here is a modified description of https://manifold.markets/SpeaksForTrees market:

Resolves YES for the year before the year that total world oil production is lower than the previous year, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in that year and will likely never become as high again. The bucket of 2024-2025 is about the year 2024.

Resolves N/A if there is no consensus on oil production peaking for any of the stated years. This market might live for longer if oil production likely peaked for one of these years, but there is still debate as to which year it was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

Related: Will society collapse due to diminished oil production after having reached Peak Oil? [vibes]