what do you mean by the title? @benjaminIkuta

@Bayesian idk, I just copied this

https://manifold.markets/ajtalas/will-the-world-reach-peak-natural-g?r=YmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

@benjaminIkuta lmk if you know cuz id be interested in participating

@Bayesian it's quantity of natural gas produced (and consumed) globally - will we have hit a global maximum by 2040

@RanaG what does hitting a global maximum by 2040? if you mean it'll never be higher after 2040, then that can never resolve until the heat death of the universe. do you mean there'll be a dip and in 2040 it will look like the peak was in the past? or something else?

@benjaminIkuta here's a market that defines peak oil in a way similar to what @Bayesian is gesturing at:

/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-ae52e67046b9

Putting in specific criteria, excluding the "and there is a consensus among experts" part and referring to a particular dataset by which you will resolve will make the resolution criteria more concrete/less subjective, which typically makes some potential market participants happier to participate.

@equinoxhq alright, I'll mirror that

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/natural-gas/gas-consumption-data.html

But I think I agree with the creator that you'd want to avoid a yes resolution when it's a temporary decrease due to a pandemic or something.