What are the resolution criteria?

@benjaminIkuta I added a description on how it'll resolve.

@ajtalas how are you defining maximum point?

@benjaminIkuta Well I was only planning on deciding the definition in 2030, but if you’re going to force my hand, then I’ll say that a maximum point was reached if the world natural gas production rate after that year fails to reach a new record high for 5 consecutive years.

@ajtalas so it couldn't definitely resolve until after those five years?

https://manifold.markets/benjaminIkuta/will-the-world-reach-peak-natural-g-60fa28fac894?r=YmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

Not very likely.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023

Total natural gas demand to 2040 is projected to increase under most scenarios, driven in large part by the balancing role that gas is expected to play for renewables-based power generation until batteries are deployed at scale. In the decade to 2050, the outlook for gas demand differs widely by scenario, from a steady increase under slower transition scenarios to a steep decline under scenarios in which renewables and electrification advance faster.

@RanaG mickinsey has been wrong and discgraced time and time again. i would not cite them if i were u

@sxgada I personally worked on this analysis lol