This is an unlinked free response market. If you submit an option and people trade on it, you'll get mana for each unique trader!
You can submit pretty much any mystery you like as long as you include a link explaining what the mystery is. Ideally this would be a link to the mystery's Wikipedia page, or a similarly neutral summary. Wikis for a fictional property are good for fictional mysteries.
Please try to submit specific mysteries, rather than a general category. So rather than submitting "UFOs", submit options like "The Pentagon Tic Tac UFO Videos". Insufficiently specific or mysterious submisisons will be N/A-ed.
An option will resolve yes if a link is posted in the comments to a reliable source presenting new information which makes a mystery significantly less mysterious. At market close in 2025, all remaining options resolve to No.
My goal is broadly to count things which are about as significant as the most significant previous developments in a mystery, while not requiring a mystery to be solved to resolve yes.
Examples of things which would count:
An OpenAI board member doing a tell-all interview where they explain why they fired Sam Altman without being vague.
The pentagon releases new tic tac videos.
We learn that the One Piece is some sort of weapon.
We find the main cabin of Flight 370 at the bottom of the ocean.
Examples of things which would not count:
A new OpenAI story is published like the one about Q* from anonymous sources.
Someone releaseas a new anaylsis of the TIc Tac videos which supports some explanations and debunks others, but doesn't add significant new information.
We learn where the One Piece is, but not anything about what it is.
We find another small piece of debris from Flight 370.
You are welcome to DM me if you think you have something that might count but you want to confirm that this is true before posting in the comments. I will try to trade on every option submitted if I know anything about it, but will not hold any large positions in this market so as to keep myself unbiased.
These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form as of market creation, and I may update them if people suggest significant improvements in the spirit of the question.
1,000
1.00@Joshua is this enough to resolve the nordstrom one? sorry for pay wall https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c
Wendy Freedman, a leading figure in this field, has led a comprehensive blind analysis of JWST data which gives an estimate which would fully resolve the Hubble tension within expected error bars.
The intention of the wording here is that a major development towards finding the value of any neutrino mass eigenstate would count. But I wouldn't count something like, "We lowered the upper bound for this one, but the interval of possible values still contains zero."
Would something short of a proof or disproof suffice for this? There could be developments in the sense of progress being made toward a proof, but that wouldn't really make it less mysterious.
Also, how about a proof that RH is independent of ZFC? That would make it way more mysterious, but also be a major development.
@PlasmaBallin Hmmm the spirit of the market is that the development gets us closer to the answer, but I guess discovering that we are wrong about something and thus that the mystery is more mysterious is still getting us closer to the answer by getting us further away from the wrong path people were going down.
I don't know how major that specific development would be though. I'd want to see headlines written about it or something for it to count, ideally. Or at least significant updates to the Wikipedia page.