Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the KMT abandon the 1992 Consensus?
Mini
2
แน€11
2028
42%
chance

From ChatGPT:
The 1992 Consensus, as viewed from the perspective of the Kuomintang (KMT), represents a crucial and pragmatic understanding reached between the Chinese Nationalist Party and the Chinese Communist Party during talks held in Hong Kong in 1992. According to the KMT, this consensus implies an acknowledgment of the "One China" principle, recognizing that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China, while allowing for different interpretations of what that entails. From the KMT's standpoint, the consensus serves as a foundation for cross-strait stability and peaceful development, fostering an environment where dialogue and cooperation can thrive. The KMT sees the 1992 Consensus as a means to maintain a delicate balance between preserving Taiwan's unique identity and fostering constructive relations with mainland China, emphasizing a commitment to peaceful coexistence and preventing any potential for conflict in the region.

From me:

KMT just lost a third election in a row. They might think that they are becoming unelectable to a citizenry that sees themselves less and less as Chinese. But, the KMT is the Chinese Nationalist Party - it might be impossible while the old guard is still alive.

I will not participate in this market, in order to make an unbiased resolution judgement. It will resolve YES if either:

The KMT presidential candidate explicitly abandons the consensus

or

He or she makes statements that are incompatible with the consensus (eg denying there is 'One China'), and refuses to affirm support for the consensus even if they don't explicitly abandon it.

It won't resolve YES until after a presidential nominee is confirmed and they have hit the above criteria after their confirmation.

This is part of a series of 'long range' markets for the Taiwan 2028 Presidential Election, hopefully focused on questions that might bubble away over the next four years.

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