There is no such thing as the Tsai Doctrine of Cross-Strait Relations, but there might as well be.

Tsai takes the view that the Republic of China (which she would voice as ROC (Taiwan) but is not actually called that), is already a sovereign state separate from the People's Republic of China.

This does two things. Firstly, it obviates the 1992 Consensus, and by extension the PRC's One China Principle. Secondly, it sidesteps the 'need' that the DPP and pan-green movement in Taiwan has traditionally felt to work towards an independent Taiwan, since according to the Tsai Doctrine (Taiwan) is already independent.

This doctrine allowed Tsai to campaign on a platform of not changing the status quo in cross-strait relations, albeit in a way that the PRC basically rejects. Nevertheless, it doesn't cross any of the PRC's redlines in a way that declaring a Republic of Taiwan almost certainly would.

Lai, the new president, essentially adopted the Tsai doctrine as part of his 2024 platform. This question is effectively asking whether the DPP will maintain that platform going into the 2028 election.

I will not bet in this market in order to make a resolution judgement.

This is part of a series of 'long range' markets for the Taiwan 2028 Presidential Election, hopefully focused on questions that might bubble away over the next four years.