Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
Plus
17
แน3647Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
96%
Falcon Heavy
96%
Starship
91%
New Glenn
86%
H3
78%
LVM3
69%
Nuri
69%
Zhuque 2
68%
Ariane 64
65%
Long March 5
45%
Gilmour Space Eris
45%
Long March 12A
42%
Proton M
41%
Zhuque 3
41%
Tianlong 3
39%
Chollima 1
38%
Pallas 1
35%
Kinetica-2
35%
Isar Spectrum
35%
RFA One
35%
Orbex Prime
Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
*Starship near-orbits don't count
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LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions
Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider
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