How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2025 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
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4
Ṁ8071Jan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.3%
261 or less
0.3%
262-280
0.5%
281-300
98.9%
301+
(There were 261 orbital launch attempts in 2024)
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
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@Multicore I don't know if you're just planning to wait till the end of the year or are happy to resolve early but either way: 301+ can technically resolve YES:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_in_spaceflight#Orbital_launches
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