Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2025?
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2025?
Plus
23
Ṁ6924Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
69%
Hakuto-R 2
20%
Griffin Mission 1
18%
Blue Moon MK1
13%
Beresheet 2
12%
IM-3
4%
Starship HLS
Resolved
YESBlue Ghost M1
Resolved
YESIM-2
Successfully land = transmit data from the surface
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@JussiVilleHeiskanen Not transmitting from the surface... but by the current metric even if all of its legs have broken and just the top is transmitting, still would count
@ScipioFabius apparently they do not have Quasonix, their telemetry, but are communicating though control channel, fwiw
@ScipioFabius but if it is upside down so it's transmitting antenna can't send in the right direction, and the have to rely on the control radio?
Resolution criteria are clear.
Arguably as we have more and more landers this particular criterion is unsatisfactory, but that's a conversation for later
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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