FYI there is a real-money Kalshi market about a moon landing in 2024: https://kalshi.com/markets/moon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon#moon-25

@JacksonWagner it's weird that that market is still so high at 5%. I'm assuming it's some kind of platform inefficiency that prevents it from going lower.

@Mqrius if it allowed users from outside the USA, I would nudge it in the right direction. But I'm guessing it's similar to here at Manifold. There are better bets to make.

@calderknight a 5% return on investment in one year isn't good enough?

I don't know much about Kalshi. Are there fees or something that make this less profitable?

@LukeHanks why would you choose a 5% ROI when there is a 7% ROI to be had?

<2025:

/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th

/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b

<2026:

/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land

/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon

/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45

/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human

Later:

/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the

/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb

I didn't know you could buy $0M.... or sell it. What is Cramik doing?

@Duncan Just testing around lol. Turns out you can buy 0.00000000001 shares

@Cramik Now I want 0.00000000001 shares.

So >50% it's happening in 2026 or 2027? https://manifold.markets/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20

@StanPinsent basically, Atremis 3 probably wont get done before 2025 ends, so it'll most likely be in 2026 or 2027

Also related:

Artemis 3 plans to land on the moon in 2025.

@BruceGrugett The plan to, but they won't. The timeline is not realistic. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/

Oh right Jackson already posted that

@Mqrius I hadn't read that before. You are probably right.

This question and https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human are essentially the same question IMO, since neither SpaceX nor any other group has any intention of launching humans in the 2024 mars launch window (they would first need to send an unmanned Starship as a test and to pre-position supplies), and the next mars launch window is not until mid-2026. And nobody is planning to send humans to phobos or etc. So, both questions come down to whether NASA (or China or etc) can pull off a moon landing by 2025. I think this is doubtful: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/amp/