1,000
1.00By the start or end?
Assuming by the end of 2028, I don't see why the probability is so low. Artemis II should happen in late 2025, but with Starship approaching a bimonthly launch cadence soon there could be the HLS test mission in 2027 and the actual Artemis III in 2028.
@DAL59 What’s your timeline on Starship bi monthly launch cadence? Also bimonthly meaning twice a month or every two months?
@DAL59 This market is by the start of 2028. It's in line with other markets; I curate a collection in the description here:
Here's someone's market on whether China will beat the USA to the Moon: https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-china-land-people-on-the-moon?r=Y2FsZGVya25pZ2h0
NASA's Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the lunar surface, had originally scheduled a moon landing for 2024. However, due to various challenges, including legal disputes and funding, this target has been pushed to at least 2025. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has affirmed the agency's commitment to the lunar landing mission despite these delays, emphasizing a safe and aggressive approach to compete with advancing space programs like China's. Given the stated commitment and the current momentum of space exploration, it seems plausible to anticipate a human landing on the moon by 2028, supporting the positive outlook of your bet.
https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-human-lunar-landing-to-at-least-2025/
Note: I'm encouraging people to also bet on the multiple choice market here:
https://manifold.markets/SenneVanHeghe/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo
I think it would be great if on "When will X happen?" type of questions The Big Canonical Market was multiple choice - but unfortunately they seem to get less attention.
I don't remember putting mana on this market but it was almost definitely before the announcement that NASA were very far behind on their Lunar surface EVA suits. It seems almost untenable to me at this point that Artemis III launches in time (if it stays as a crewed mission).
To me there seems to be 3 major issues halting progress
NASA is criminally underfunded
This wont change unless like China's progress accelerates and they're threatening lunar bases to be set up by 2030 or something. The ILRS exists on this front but it doesn't seem to really have any teeth (similar to most NASA programs). Which is like the who's who of failing and satellite states. There would have to be REAL progress on this front for the NASA budget to significantly change.
https://www.space.com/china-ilrs-moon-base-partners-belarus-pakistan
In terms of coalition building, NASA seems to be quite a lot better, at least in terms of partners. Artemis Accords is similar in the sense it doesn't seem to really accomplish much, but if it's used to boost proper partnerships like the technology safeguards that US/AU made this week to allow for (hopefully) a proper space industry to form in allied countries it could do something. This seems like a long term thing a definitely not in the next 4 years though.
The FAA streamlining launch approvals
I'm not sure how much this would speed up Starship development but I at least think it would create a better system for all launch providers. Hopefully future proofing for a growing launch ecosystem
Sorting out a better contract procurement system
It's pretty clear there's a lot of waste with manufacturers like Boeing
I don't necessarily think moving to a pure fixed price contract is correct, it seems it would probably stifle some amount of experimentation/innovation in favour of going for "the safe bet"
Don't really know what the solution is here other than Boeing needs to get their shit together.
As a side note I'd like to see ULA get moving, they seem to be playing it pretty safe.
(Seems like indenting multiple times inline and trying to post just doesn't work)
@NGK fwiw as far as I can tell the timeline of 2025 was always wildly unrealistic, and posited more for political reasons rather than as an actual thing. The procurement of both HLS and the spacesuits were simply too late to make a 2025 deadline, NASA calling it a delay is just trying to save face.
@NGK Agreed, NASA is suffering badly from budget constraints. Not sure how you conclude that ILRS doesn't have teeth, I suspect it does. It's scheduled for 2035 completion rather than 2030, and they're leaving things quite open-ended in terms of what exactly the completed ILRS will look like, but I think they're somewhat committed. Anyway, I think even before that there will be a "first woman on the Moon" race between China and the USA in 2028-2030 which should get the USA back on track somewhat
P.S. I can't blame anyone for idly clicking the YES button. Artemis III was scheduled for 2024 and is even now scheduled for December 2025. But once you start reading you see that every single statement from NASA and every internal report talks about how unrealistic the timelines are and how much development is left to go you realise that they have literally zero chance of completing the mission on schedule.
****
@JimHays OK, from that page:
In August 2023, due to delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials expressed an openness to flying Artemis 3 without a crewed landing.
If it didn't do a crewed landing, next one would be Artemis IV which would be in 2028 at the earliest.
And if Artemis III does attempt a crewed landing, it seems unlikely that it will be before 2028. It needs Starship to be ready, with multiple Starships in orbit. And it needs the lunar spacesuit to be developed, which can't properly start development until the Starship lander is developed.
And sources from within the industry have stated that they think it is unlikely that Artemis will fly before 2028
I wouldn't say it's impossible that it will be done in 2027 or earlier, I just can't see it being >20%.
@calderknight Yeah, Artemis 3 is the only contender, but I agree with you that chances are slim. I guess that's why I'm the main No holder :D
@Mqrius That being said I don't see why the spacesuits and the lander can't be developed in parallel. What makes you say they can't?
Fwiw SpaceX is also developing its own EVA spacesuit that will be used for Polaris Dawn, so if NASA drags their feet too long SpaceX might get involved there too. Zero G EVAs and moon suits have different requirements but there's reasonable overlap.
@Mqrius I think I overstated it a little bit. They can start development but not finish it.
What's more, delays to Starship have knock-on effects because the spacesuit contractor needs to know how the suits will interface with the spacecraft, and simulators need to be built for astronauts to learn its systems.
The bottom line is that there's a lot of technology that just isn't built yet, let alone the rigorous testing it will have to go through.
Agreed that Artemis is the only contender for this time period, but still wouldn't be surprised if China gets there in 2029 or 2030 and if in doing so they beat the USA in returning man to the moon. And I assume if China does beat the USA, China will bring one of their women astronauts and claim the first woman on the Moon.
