How badly are we misjudging feedback mechanisms, exponential curves, and human inertia? To the point, are we more seriously fucked than we think we are?
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1.00@StevenK Not trying to pretend to be a scientist. But generally the baseline measure is often preindustrial 1850-1900. The test data set is commonly a thirty year period (most recent) to iron out short term fluctuations). The 2 degree increase isn’t really expected until toward end of century as I understand but every year seems like experts are surprised at that (?) the data show unexpectedly higher levels of warming and rate of change. Like I say, I’m no scientist, but will happy bet all my manifold manna that the Paris 1.5 degree goal/limit is a fairy tale, as we blow by it in the next few years.
@KevinRiddle Do you mean that the question is whether, within 10 years, the 30 year average will be at least 2 degrees above the baseline? That seems like it would be very hard, because the last 20 years have been substantially less than 2 degrees above the baseline.
@StevenK There was some discussion of dataset choices here: https://manifold.markets/Soli/how-will-the-average-global-tempera#YlBL2mNa10ZP1YHKlUwj