Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems? | Manifold

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Plus

45

Ṁ1710

2300

92%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140), > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet. I replied, > I agree to this bet. This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

Hanson insisting on EMs is a bizarre denial of evidence

Dudes will literally write hundreds of pages about “fake humans” to act out their master-slave fantasy

It’s more like 🐙 will dominate the labor supply before “emulated brains”

One of the worst ideas of all time

At the current market price, Robin is winning.

kind of wack to commit your descendants to it though

@L pretty sure in no western countries it is legal

Related questions

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will we get AGI before 2036?

Will we get AGI before 2037?

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2038?

When will AGI arrive

Related questions

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2036?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2037?

Will we get AGI before 2038?

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?

When will AGI arrive

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules