Will Manifold think Trump's threat to democracy was overblown at the end of 2025?
Plus
44
Ṁ19772025
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
When this market closes, I will make a poll on Manifold with the question, "Was Trump's threat to U.S. democracy overblown during the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign?" The response options will be yes, no, and see results. This market will resolve to whichever of yes or no has the most votes at the end of 2025. I will reopen this market after the poll is made. I will not bet on this market.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump is elected president, will Manifold think he made a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
31% chance
Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?
49% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will Manifold be in the NYT again before the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Joe Biden before the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will a Manifold mod blatantly abuse their power by the end of 2024?
17% chance
Will Manifold be prominently featured in a NYT article again before the end of 2024?
19% chance
At the end of 2024, will Manifold think 2024 was a particularly eventful year?
85% chance
Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025?
70% chance
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
38% chance