Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?
➕
Plus
9
Ṁ1822
2026
32%
chance

Sam Altman has suggested that "GPT-Next" may not be called GPT-5 at all.

A GPT-4.5 or any other model prior to "GPT-Next" won't count.

This market resolves based on the fifth major iteration.

If "GPT-5" includes multiple models, as long as at least one meets the YES criteria, it resolves to YES.

This market will resolve when "GPT-Next" from OpenAI is released and accessible via API. Even if the official name is known prior to release, it won't be resolved before.

A release here means "accessible to some users outside of OpenAI with no waitlist and no special criteria to be chosen" (e.g., general rollout).

Resolves as YES:

  • The official model name (as in the API) contains the string "GPT-5" (case insensitive) explicitly. So, something like "GPT-5" or "GPT-5-Supernova" is YES.

Resolves as NO:

  • The YES criteria are not met. So, something like "GPT-Supernova-5" or "Eucalypt" is NO.

  • OpenAI doesn't release "GPT-Next" before 2026.

  • OpenAI dissolves (rebranding with another name doesn't count).

OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.

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86 percent is insanely high, no? Given that Altman explicitly said he doesn’t want name gpt5.

Also i guess gpt-4.5 doesn’t count as a “major model iteration”?

bought Ṁ100 YES

agree 86% was high, but I think 3% is too low. I'll buy YES in larger quantity around 15% if anyone's interested