Will a western country put sanctions on Israel by the end of 2025?
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2026
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For the purposes of this market, western countries include the EU and EEA member states, United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom.

The sanctions must target either the state of Israel, senior officials of the state, or elected politicians. These include:

  • Members of Knesset

  • Army generals of תת-אלוף rank or higher (Third highest rank. I think there's a few dozens of them)

  • The president

  • Ministers and Ministry heads

Sanctions against individuals who are not connected to the state, such as the ones against extreme settlers, don't count.

Sanctions will be determined by a "you know them when you see them" criterion. I fear that any definition I put forth could lead to even more confusion in case of targeted trade restrictions or barring of entry of some specific individual. Generally I will be following whatever the media defines as sanctions.

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I don't think this quite meets the criteria, but it's interesting to see where this leads: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-slams-reported-us-decision-to-sanction-idf-unit-the-height-of-absurdity/