A Politico article covering effective altruism was published in late 2023. The article focused on how influential effective altruism supporters had become in Washington, DC:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/30/ai-debate-culture-clash-dc-silicon-valley-00133323

The article also stated that effective accelerationists and open-source advocates were frustrated and were formulating plans to "fight back." Will a political spectrum form in 2024 between these two movements?

On December 31, 2024, I will post a one-week Manifold poll closing January 7, 2025 with the following question:

• "Are effective altruism and effective accelerationism political movements?"

The answers will be BOTH, EA, E/Acc, NEITHER, and NO OPINION. This market will resolve to YES if the plurality answer is BOTH, excluding NO OPINION from determining which option achieved a plurality. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

I may post a similar poll early in 2024 to get a baseline, but that poll is not relevant to the market.

If either movement is replaced by a movement with the same goals as a direct successor, the name of the largest successor will be used instead. If one of the movements changes its name, that name will be used instead in the poll.