This market resolves to the favorability percentage among Republicans according to 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/
The exact metric measured is "favorable" (and not "net favorable"). On February 8, 2024, Trump's "favorable" according to 538 is 78.5%. (His "unfavorable" is 19.5%, and his "net favorable" is +59.0%.)
The market will close at the end of 2024. The resolution decision will be made in 2025 as soon as I am able to get a favorability number from 538 for 1/1/2025. (The data thus might exclude surveys from 2024 that have not yet been added to 538, but the resolution will nonetheless stand.)
If 538 no longer aggregates data on Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of Trump's death, then a suitable replacement will be found (with consultation from the community). The core of the idea is to measure the general approval and loyalty of Republicans toward Trump over time.
1,000
1.00Gallup polling from Nov 6-20, 2024, shows favorability of Trump among Republicans at 85%:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653714/republicans-optimistic-democrats-afraid-election.aspx
Unless 538 starts tracking favorability again, I'll continue relying on Gallup.
Gallup polling from Nov 6-20, 2024, shows favorability of Trump among Republicans at 85%:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653714/republicans-optimistic-democrats-afraid-election.aspx
Unless 538 starts tracking favorability again, I'll continue relying on Gallup.
I see that 538 has not provided updated favorability numbers for Republicans since March 2024. I'm scouting some alternate sources of favorability information, in case we need them, and I'm going to sell my positions in case a judgement call needs to be made. Here are my current two favorite alternate sources of data:
1) Gallup
79% favorability among Republicans as of December 2023
This matches pretty closely with the 538 numbers for that time period.
2) Pew
66% favorability among Republicans as of July 2023
This number includes "lean Republicans", which I think is making the number low. Prefer Gallup for now.