Will @Mira destroy the world by contributing to development of cat girls? 🤔

/MrLuke255/conditional-on-mira-getting-a-job-a-e344151b91e0

@MrLuke255 "The first generation of catgirls wasn't genetically compatible, so humanity voluntarily extincted itself by everyone preferring catgirls and nobody having any children."

But that would happen later than 2030.

marketwise, that limit order is not fun.

@Mira Do you want to destroy the world?

@MrLuke255

@firstuserhere Fascinating! So considering the present market, the one you link to there, and https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8, assuming all three markets are rationally priced (which I can't see any issue with), we can conclude that there is a ~2.5% chance that Mira will be responsible for human extinction (by joining OpenAI) without actually causing it. Such a subtle philosophical conundrum!

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

8% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974 @/JamesBills/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6e8e547afa66 @/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

Edited to add: that's at least 2.5%, because in principle it would be possible for Mira to wipe out humanity by non-AI means.