Resolves YES if Trump's approval rating is below 34.0% at any point this year on Silver Bulletin's approval rating tracker.
Resolves NO if it stays at or above 34.0% (Trump's rating floor from his first term) for the entirety of the year.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
If the Silver Bulletin tracker goes down, stops updating, or dramatically changes its methodology to an extent that it no longer reflects the "approval rating" of Trump, before the end of the year, I will resolve to my rough estimate of the average PROBABILITY of the market over the week prior to the announcement of that happening, or to N/A if there is market manipulation in that regard.
I will not bet in this market.
1,000
1.00Where are you getting 34%? I believe the lowest was 37%
@NathanScott when I made this market, I subscribed to Silver Bulletin, and the lowest Trump approval rating according to their methodology was 34%. I no longer have access to that specific graph, it appears, as I don't subscribe anymore.