This question resolves according to polling published by Civiqs on their recurring question, filtered for Republican responses: "How would you rate the condition of the national economy right now?"
If Republican approval jumps to 80% or higher before the end of 2025 according to Civiqs, this question resolves YES, and otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
Civiqs polling has historically shown a strong relationship between partisan affiliation and rating of the economy. For example, here is a New York Times graphic of Civiqs polling:
When Donald Trump was elected US President in 2017, approval jumped from around -70% to nearly +80% (note that the NYTimes infographic uses 0-100% instead of -100 to +100%):
Will Republican economic sentiment skyrocket again in 2025?
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Some observations:
Republican economic sentiment skyrocketed in the first year of Trump's first term back in 2017, but only cracked 80% by December. If Republican sentiment improves even a bit slower than how it did in 2017, then you'd expect to pass 80% maybe January or February 2026.
By March 2018, Republicans were at 90%+ approval and stayed there virtually unchanged until COVID.
Manifold traders currently only put the odds of overall consumer sentiment returning to pre-pandemic levels next year at 39%:
The 2017 skyrocketing of Republican economic sentiment happened when overall consumer sentiment was much higher than it is now. Consumer sentiment overall was already about as high as it was going to get by Jan 2015. (see FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT)
Republican sentiment is also starting at a lower base in 2024 (-88%) than it was in 2016 (-70). That could mean the hill will be harder to climb, or it could mean Republican economic sentiment is even more partisan now, which could suggest Republicans will be faster in swinging to 90%.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00