32% chance. Please note: Kalshi's rules as stated do not require ambient pressure. Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/supercon/roomtemp-superconductor Copy of the summary and some relevant excerpts of the rules: If an eligible peer-reviewed journal publishes research that reports that a material is room-temperature superconductive (it has a critical temperature greater than room temperature, exhibits 10^-10 ohm-cm electrical resistivity or less, and exhibits the Meissner effect), then the market resolves to Yes. a peer-reviewed research on superconductivity (excluding research conducted by researchers at the institutions of the authors of the two July 2023 papers on LK-99) reports the discovery of a material that has both a critical temperature (Tc) which exceeds 296 kelvin (73.13 degrees Fahrenheit), electrical resistivity of 10^-10 ohm-centimeters or lower, and which demonstrates the Meissner effect. That material need not be LK-99. Eligible journals include those in the first quartile ("Q1") of SJR's condensed matter physics journals or any journal above a 1.0 SJR ranking. Full rules: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/rulebook/contract_terms/SUPERCON.pdf