@itsTomekK
Now showing 20048 with last launch on register dated 30 Dec 2024
Resolves yes

@ChristopherRandles wow nice! Thanks :)

UN register now showing 19941

Last Starlink satellites on register is from 13th Dec
Since then just the large multiple satellite launches not on register include
Dec 21st 30 Sats Bandwagon-2
Dec 23rd 21 Sats Starlink 12-2
Dec 29th 22 Sats Starlink 11-3

So those alone reach 20014

There are more to go on the register Planet4589 has 20104 to Dec 15th.

Currently showing 19887 with last launch shown Starlink 8 Dec 2024.

Since then
Starlink 11-2 22 sats 13/12/24
NROL-149 20 sats 17 Dec
Bandwagon-2 30 sats 21 Dec 2024
Starlink 12-2 21 sats 23 Dec 2024
totals 93 sats
9 other orbital launches for at least 10 sats have happened

This gets us to 19990, so getting very close.

However there are likely more
https://planet4589.org/space/stats/out/satannual.txt
shows us at 20304 to 15 Dec 2024

Excluding 2024 planet4589 has 17594 compared to UNOOSA's 17491 so very similar numbers just 103 different 0.6%. So it is very likely there are more prior to 8 Dec 2024 that haven't yet made it to the UNOOSA register. I am much more inclined to trust planet4589 numbers as being more up to date such that we will get to 20000 sats launched per UNOOSA even if there isn't another starlink launch this year (2 planned)

The market closes 31 December 2024 which is fine.

Last objects launched on table currently is 9 July so 6 weeks before the table catches up.

Will the question be resolved based on number displayed on 1 Jan 2025 regardless of date of last table entry? or
Will you wait ~6-8 weeks until objects launched are all reported to be 2025 launches then take number and subtract the number launched in 2025? (there is a filter by year option).

6-8 weeks of launches could make a difference and I think question should be about number of objects launched not about how out of date the data is. So I prefer waiting for the data but would like this confirmed. @itsTomekK

To clarify - market is meant to ask about number if satellites launched by the end of 2024 as reported by OOSA, not a number reported at the end of 2024

Will wait for the data before resolution

Thanks for asking!

I initially read this title as "more than 20,000 objects launched into space in 2024", but your description is making me think it's "more than 20,000 total launched by the end of 2024" (so ~5200 more objects). Which interpretation is correct?

@DanMan314 Number circled is a total launched whenever. 2023 will end with total around 17626 and 2023 number around 2917. So 2024 launched objects would have to fall by ~16% for it not to be true.

@ChristopherRandles Right, like I said I think the second interpretation of the market being about the cumulative launched objects is more reasonable. Just looking for confirmation of that from Tomek.

@DanMan314 Yes, the market is about total number of objects. Should i clarify some wording? Thanks

@itsTomekK Not sure I have a great suggestion, I just misread the title at first and think others might too. Maybe

2024: "Will the number of objects launched into outer space reach 20,000"?