Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

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Ṁ1807

2028

40%

chance

ALL

By most interesting I mean a mix of most talked about, most profitable, one with the most potential and most powerful and some other stuff.

In 2016 it would have probably been AlphaGo
in 2020 probably AlphaFold (maybe GPT 3 would have to look at what got more attention at the time.)
In 2022 probably Chat GPT (Chat GPT seems to have had a much bigger impact than DALL-E 2)

In 2023 so far probably GPT 4

Comment if you have any suggestions for how "most interesting" should be defined.

If I think it will make the Market better might resolve to 50% if there are two equally interesting ones and one is a LLM etc.

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Does this include textless LLMs?

sold Ṁ15 YES

@RemNi I'm not super sure what that would mean, but if it's trained on spoken words e.g. YouTube that will count.

@justifieduseofFallibilism

https://ai.meta.com/blog/textless-nlp-generating-expressive-speech-from-raw-audio/

Yes, it's growing like doodle jump jumping higher and higher.

I am using the loose heuristic that's the category of “other“ it’s always bigger than one intuitively believes.

But attempting to define boundaries around a top contender: what if the biggest technology ends up being autonomous agents that use LLM is as one of several components?

@MatthewRitter I guess I'll also resolve probabilistically. So if the top AI is 50 LLM and 50 other I'll resolve 50%. And if it seems 90% other but uses LLM for 10% I'll resolve to 10%. But I hope to be able to resolve to YES or NO.

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