On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs exceeding the 10% baseline on 76 countries—including 59 specifically listed nations and the entire EU bloc. (source)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, Donald Trump signs federal legislation or takes executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes the blanket “reciprocal” tariff on imports from 39 or more of the listed countries. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying Actions:

• Any broad policy change that alters the general reciprocal tariffs imposed on a listed country will count.

• A reduction of the EU-wide reciprocal tariff will count as affecting all 27 EU member states.

• A change targeting individual EU member states will count toward the 39-country threshold.

• Country-level adjustments to the general reciprocal tariffs are what matter.

Non-Qualifying Actions:

• Item-specific exemptions or adjustments that do not affect the general reciprocal tariff policy for that country.

• Any change to the 10% general import tariff that is not part of the reciprocal tariff policy.

Timing:

• The action must be formally enacted (e.g. signed order or law) within the market window, regardless of its effective date.

Resolution Source:

• The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Trump administration.

• In the absence of direct statements, a consensus from credible news outlets or official government sources will also be used.