Resolves to YES if the May 2025 edition of the US BLS statistics indicates the sum of employement in the following categories has declined by at least 5% from the May 2023 numbers:
Writers and Authors (includes copywriters for advertising etc, as well as authors and screenwriters)
May 2023 numbers are forthcoming.
Background: there's a perception that generative AI will replace creative workers, and therefore demand for workers like graphic designers and writers will fall dramatically. There's also a 5 year version of this market.
1,000
1.00Based on published schedule and edit dates, there's typically an 11 month lag on OEWS data.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2024/home.htm
"Wednesday, April 3, 2024
10:00 AM
Occupational Employment and Wages for Annual 2023"
May 2021 levels of employment for these jobs in 2025 would resolve YES. (Hypothetical uniform 5% drop included for reference)
@jellyberg sorry I’ve realised I set the resolve date too soon - the date of the 2025 release of the numbers will be 2026. We’ll get 2024’s numbers in April-ish 2025.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00