Falcons beat Buccaneers (12/11) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Ravens beat Bengals (12/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cardinals beat Texans (12/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Chargers beat Chiefs (12/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Bills beat Patriots (12/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Commanders beat Giants (12/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Raiders beat Eagles (12/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Packers beat Broncos (12/14) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Panthers beat Saints (12/14) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Colts beat Seahawks (12/14) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Vikings beat Cowboys (12/14) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Dolphins beat Steelers (12/15) 7:30 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

Resolves to the winner of the 2025 NBA Cup:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_Cup#Bracket

A week into January 2025, Polymarket has it at 36-33 for Google vs OpenAI. With xAI / Grok a dark horse next at 12% -- as we anticipate Grok 3. Anthropic also a player at 10%.

https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025

We will resolve this based on what is on the LMArena website when the clock strike midnight on Dec 31st 2025. New York time.

Also we will respect ties. If two (or more) organizations tie for first 

 we will assign joint winners. We will judge based on the 

"overall" ELO leaderboards on the LMArena website.

Let's make this a fun, high subsidies market.

This is a market on whether Polyoptions' total trading volume in 2026 is greater than or equal to $100,000,000.00 (as rounded to the nearest penny), according to official trading volume as first reported for that period, or portion thereof, at 

Trading volume will be measured in notional value, which equals the USD payout value of the underlying Polymarket positions.

If total trading volume in 2026 is less than $100,000,000.00 or if no such official data is published at that site on or before January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Should Polyoptions change its name or URL, the relevant successor site will be used as the resolutions source.

Should Polyoptions merge with or be acquired by another platform prior to year-end and prior to trigerring a "Yes" resolution, such that Polyoptions' volume can not be disaggregated from that of its acquirer or merger partner, this market will resolve to “No”.

I'll go on polymarket on december 30th (the latest time where few "end of 2025" markets will have closed or resolved), and count how many markets show up when i type "AI". If there is some other tag i should type out bc you think the "AI" search tag will miss a bunch of AI markets, lmk and i can add a few strictly-ai-related tags.

At the moment (Jan 28) there are 45 AI markets.

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

 if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category of the 

On an April 2024 episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that j

ust as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/josh-wolfe-the-chatgpt-of-robotics-is-coming?srnd=oddlots

https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)

This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.

I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

 (RAISE Act) is a New York AI safety bill that requires AI developers to produce safety protocols to address the most severe risks (and then follow those protocols), and creates whistleblower protections for AI company employees.

This market will resolve based on the furthest stage the bill reaches by January 1, 2026. Possible outcomes include:

Substantial amendments to the bill (e.g. ones that significantly water it down) will not change the resolution of this market, 

 the amendments are so substantial that it's a fundamentally different bill (as happened with 

 in Texas). Sorry that this isn't a clear-cut resolution criterion -- I'll make judgments on a case-by-case basis, though I suspect that it won't end up being relevant.

Federal preemption is not relevant to the resolution of this market. For instance, if the governor signs the bill but federal preemption prevents it from taking effect, the market nevertheless resolves "Has become law".

FrontierMath is a challenging mathematical benchmark created by Epoch AI to evaluate the mathematical reasoning capabilities of AI models. It consists of competition-level mathematics problems from various sources including the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) and the Putnam Competition. These problems require advanced problem-solving skills, creativity, and mathematical intuition.

As of December 2024, the highest score achieved on the FrontierMath benchmark is 25.2% by OpenAI's o3 reasoning model. This benchmark is considered particularly difficult for AI systems, as it tests deep mathematical reasoning rather than pattern recognition or memorization.

This market will resolve to the highest publicly reported score (as a percentage) achieved by any AI model on the FrontierMath benchmark during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025).

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus. 

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. 

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

there will be no ai clarifications added to this market's description

if you have a question, just ask in the comments :) !!!

Donald Trump has proposed a "Gold Card" program as an alternative to the existing EB-5 investor visa program. The Gold Card would reportedly cost $5 million per card, compared to the current EB-5 program which requires a minimum investment of $800,000 to $1.05 million. Trump has suggested these cards could generate significant revenue, with ambitious claims of potentially selling up to one million cards (which would theoretically generate $5 trillion).

The current EB-5 visa program typically issues fewer than 10,000 visas annually. The Gold Card program would target wealthy foreign nationals seeking expedited paths to U.S. residency.

This market will resolve to the total number of Trump Gold Cards sold during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025).

If the Gold Card program is not implemented or officially launched by the end of 2025, this market will resolve to 0.

If official government data on Gold Card sales is not publicly available, resolution will be based on credible media reports or official statements from the Trump administration regarding the number of cards sold.

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

This market resolves when reliable sources aligned with global health and charities report that PEPFAR-funded organizations are once again receiving aid money, for at least 50% of their previous budget.

https://manifold.markets/TiredCliche/will-pepfar-funding-be-unfrozen-by

Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party 

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition. 

An individual head of state (current or elect)

At least 75 years old at time of announcement

Photo exists of them wearing a baseball hat

Under 40 years old at time of announcement

...could suck a golf ball through a garden hose.

Has been accused of molesting their sister

Born after Hiroshima bombing & before Macintosh 128K release

Leader (or leader elect) of P5 country : 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇫🇷

has served time in a prison/jail for any reason

known to have been a shriner / bear / elk / mason / rotary club / lion or other social club member

Head of state, head of government, or de facto paramount leader (current, former, or elect)

is digital (software, concept or technology)

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

, Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as 

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their 

Question is about any current or future openAI models vs any competitor models.

If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win. If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.

See previous market for more insight into my resolution plan: 

: capabilities were "similar". Both Google and openAI models tied for first place on LLM Arena. OpenAI won because of their popularity/market dominance.

 if OpenAI releases no new models by end of year.

Creator acknowledges Gemini/Claude dominate ChatGPT for top-end use, but notes most people either don't know or don't care that they are better.

: Creator believes Gemini and Claude are sufficiently ahead of ChatGPT based on all metrics.

: Benchmarks, stock market activity, and OpenAI's "code red" all indicate OpenAI knows they are no longer the leader

, resolution may be more complicated. Otherwise, market resolves YES if these conditions aren't met.

Creator notes the "strongly surpassed" language is meant to avoid situations where OpenAI has achieved AGI/ASI but loses due to release schedules. Since OpenAI has shown signs they're worried (code red, etc.), if the new model isn't a top scorer, they know OpenAI was passed.

This market resolves YES if Valve themselves confirm half life 3 is in development before January 1st 2026.

Resolves YES iff the social media ban for under 16 year olds in Australia implemented in December 2025 is no longer law at any point from January 1st to December 31st 2026 according to consensus of credible reporting.

Something crazy happens (see description)

https://manifold.markets/post/something-crazy-happens-test-match?r=Um9kZHk

Trade on politics & more