I'm a NO holder but this is the current state of the situation. I would think there's some Arb to be had with this

https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-the-iran-nuclear-deal-be-reviv-0vinvnnu8g

AXIOS

Israel is making preparations to swiftly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if negotiations between the U.S. and Iran collapse, two Israeli sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: The Israeli intelligence community has shifted just in the past few days from believing a nuclear deal was close to thinking talks could soon break down, the sources say.

One source said the Israeli military thinks its operational window to conduct a successful strike could close soon, so Israel will have to move fast if talks fail. The source declined to say why the military believes a strike would be less effective later.

• "Bibi is waiting for the nuclear talks to collapse and for the moment Trump will be disappointed about the negotiations and open to giving him the go-ahead," an Israeli source added, using a nickname for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Friction point: A U.S. official told Axios the Trump administration is concerned Netanyahu might make his move even without a green light from President Trump.

Is there a comparable market through end of 2026? If not, @DanielFox9fff want to make it?

@Tyler31 I just made it: https://manifold.markets/DanielFox9fff/will-israel-strike-irans-nuclear-fa-0zRl8LyCq9?r=RGFuaWVsRm94OWZmZg

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/20/politics/intelligence-israel-possible-strike-iran-nuclear-facilities

New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN Politics

The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, multiple US officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.

There's a kind of paradox where Iran looks at this market - sees the odds of a strike hovering ~ 50% therefore they make a deal so the odds should be lower 😕

That's my theory anyway

Iran must make a deal, therefore they will make a deal.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-trump-nuclear-weapons-program-702e7dfa4c3609f8cefdcb9f67b8117a

How would a joint US/Israel strike resolve?

@ChadCotty it would resolve YES in the case of active Israeli involvement in combat eg. Israeli planes/pilots/drones.

If Israel were to provide only soft cooperation with such a strike—say providing intelligence—the market would not resolve YES.

@DanielFox9fff Cyberattacks resolve NO, correct?

@FergusArgyll Cyber attacks intended to cause clear physical damage—eg. remotely centrifuge explosions—resolve YES.

Cyber attacks not intended to cause clear physical damage—eg. remotely wiping hard-drives with crucial data—resolve NO.

Put simply: the market resolves YES if there is physical damage to a nuclear site intentionally and directly caused by Israel. It resolves NO otherwise.

A Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, an American strategic bomber, is currently circling off the coast of Israel. (Israel don't have a strategic air force, they have a tactical one.) Of course, for this market the strike has to be perpetrated by Israel.

I think yes: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-838330

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/iran-israel-destroyed-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility

Note that this strike occured before the creation of this market and cannot trigger a YES resolution.

trump election makes this significantly more likely