What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected
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Jan 20
[image]
Netanyahu authorizes negotiators to enter detailed talks for ceasefire deal with Hamas
Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict. @traders
Hamas leader claims Israel trying to avert ceasefire via ‘heinous massacres’ in Gaza
Trump says he was shot in the ear during rally; one attendee and shooter are dead  
Florida judge dismisses the Trump classified documents case Judge Aileen Cannon handed down her decision on Monday in a big win for the former president. The Florida judge overseeing former President Donald Trump's classified documents case dismissed the indictment against him.
@traders Hamas denies it has withdrawn from hostage-truce talks after latest Israeli attacks
Trump selects Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate [image]
IDF reveals most of Hamas in Shejaia gone, families release new hostage photos
House Democrats circulate letter urging DNC not to rush Biden nomination House Democrats are circulating a drafted letter urging the Democratic National Committee to slow down the nomination process for President Joe Biden, which could begin as soon as Sunday. As of Tuesday, at least 19 Capitol Hill Democrats had come out publicly to urge Biden to bow out of the race, following his debate fumble against Donald Trump in June. Biden’s mission to rescue his campaign with a flood of public appearances is competing with the turbocharged energy of the Republican National Convention, days after the attempted Trump assassination.
@traders 2/3rds 👀 [image]Comment from @Predictor on the "Premium" market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n)
Biden Has Covid [image]
Jeffrey Katzenberg Tells Joe Biden That Donor Cash Is Drying Up As Concerns About POTUS’ Age Grow
Biden Drops Out. [tweet]
Deadly strike in Golan Heights raises fears of major escalation - CNN 07/27/2024
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO
Top U.S. general in the Middle East as U.S. and Israel prepare for possible Iran attack -AXIOS
Blinken says Israel has agreed to US proposal to close remaining gaps on ceasefire deal and calls on Hamas to do the same -CNN
Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ‘There’s not a deal in the making’
It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
Harris concedes to Trump
White House believes Lebanon truce will put pressure on Hamas to negotiate for Gaza ceasefire, official says From CNN's Sam Fossum
Hamas and Israel ‘are talking seriously’ about a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, source says
13%
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire
0.4%
Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
87%
Trump Re-elected
0.2%
Biden Re-elected

What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected

This market only resolves 1 answer

Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First

  • To Meet Re-Election:

    • Biden must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

    • Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

  • To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

    • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine

    • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

    • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

    • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

  • MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET


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reposted
Trump Re-elected
bought Ṁ2,500 Trump Re-elected YES

@DistinctlySkeptical Does this require inauguration? So that wouldn’t be until Jan 20, 2025

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 yes as stated in description

Is there a case where trump or Biden (or Harris)are elected by ineligible voters? Are we in mass voter fraud territory / GRT territory / or just ruling out the possibility that the U.S. states nominate electors based on opinion polls from non U.S. citizens?

bought Ṁ61 Biden Re-elected NO

Why is "Biden re-elected" still 6%?

@AlphaAbulikim I sold my 11,000 position and brought it to 9%. Can't keep waiting for it to resolve, had to get my mana out.

@DistinctlySkeptical you may wanna extend this one

@mattyb MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET

It will at the end of the month if none have "happened first"

bought Ṁ150 Russia/Ukraine Cease... YES

Russia/Ukraine was wildly undervalued since it uses two national entities but Israel/Hamas has one national entity and one specific political party that may be destroyed or disempowered. If Trump loses and Hamas is disempowered, Russia/Ukraine will resolve Yes. Not an absurd scenario!

sold Ṁ43 Israel/Hamas Ceasefire YES

@DistinctlySkeptical I humbly request Harris's elected option.

I don't have 10k Mana for a "PLUS" market but here is a BASIC market.
@traders


Much obliged

reposted

Biden Drops Out.