Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the title of president on January 1, 2025, even if he is suspended from his duties due to impeachment.
1,000
1.00https://www.ft.com/content/fa9dafe4-7d63-4ef0-970e-5e259feb8778
The opposition is unable to get the few votes they need from the president's party for impeachment.
@MalachiteEagle so that’s probably true, but i think the party is officially pretending it’s not true. Look at the comments of the deputy vs director of the NIS
The impeachment vote is expected to take place in about a week
Impeachment requires 200 of 300 members of the National Assembly
Opposition currently holds 192 seats
10 National Assembly members from the president's party voted against the declaration of martial law
The head of the president's political party rebuked him but has not weighed-in on impeachment
Removing the president would also mean removing all his cabinet members, and those positions are unlikely to be won back if his party members vote to impeach him
On the other hand, party members may lose reelection if they don't vote to impeach him
Once impeached, the president keeps his title but is suspended of power until a court rules on the impeachment 180 days later
Procedurally, the only way the president could change in the next 30 days is if he voluntarily resigns or dies
@SteveMichaels betting with the assumption that this market resolves based on title not whether he is the “acting president”
Polymarket currently at 64% https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2024?tid=1733248222818
@PaperBoy Reasoning in the comments there seems to be skepticism that he can be impeached or removed by the court in just 28 days, and a belief that he will not resign