Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2029.
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89 (this question)
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor
/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7973daa750f9
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-06bd353512dc
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-d3d4a061f891
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-5d430e6e7829
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37
Numeric market:
/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc
Other questions for 2029:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-7d562d338323
/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14
/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-7b1d4b5ec34
/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact
Other reference points for cure for cancer:
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-we
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c
The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.
1,000
1.00The criteria here are ridiculously strong. Note that even with a magical cure for cancer, you'd get less than 100% of "alive and cancer free 18 months after diagnosis" simply because people also die of other causes - and a big part of people diagnosed with cancer is already old and frail.
The timeline is also very aggresive - any trial that enrolls a lot of patients to count for this market (i.e. by July 1st 2027) should probably be starting relatively soon and thus the treatment needs to either already exist today, just not be tried or be very close to discovery...
@MartinModrak yes this is intentional. 95% is close to the survival rate that you'd get for a healthy control set with matching characteristics
@RemNi I still think such magical cure is implausible even quite in the long run (I'd say < 20% for 2040), but I very rarely bet at such longterm markets, unless the price is very good. Especially because it seems to me that most Manifolders are overly technooptimistic, so I cannot expect the market to correct to a reasonable value for a long time to make my bets worthwhile.
@MartinModrak That's interesting. I think these markets could hover above 15-20% for the dates in the 2030s, so lots of options for confident NO bets there 🦀
@MartinModrak also the loan system is designed to encourage you to lock up your bets in long term markets you feel confident about, so you get your mana back quickly