MANIFOLD
Browse
US Election
News
About
App
Sign in
Dark
Light
(auto)
Cabinet
CEO Shooter
Sora
What Will Trump Do?
OpenAI
Bitcoin
Korea Martial Law
Ding v. Gukesh
Golden Globes
Glicked ๐๏ธ๐งน
2028 Election
Israel
AGI Timelines
Biden
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Fed Rates
Nvidia
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts
AI Capabilities
Manifold AI
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
cshunter
Plus
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
37%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
143
แน1.2k
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
22%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
286
แน2.5k
MP
Plus
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
63%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
1464
แน4.4k
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
78%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
270
แน2.4k
Metaculus Bot
Bot
Plus
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
75%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
135
แน1.7k
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
51%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
57
แน1.2k
Matthew Barnett
Premium
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
62%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
550
แน13k
Bolton Bailey
Plus
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
80%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
347
แน1.8k
Austin
Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
71%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2658
แน100k
NoUsernameSelected
Plus
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
12%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
232
แน2k
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
62%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
100
แน1.2k
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
73%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
440
แน2.4k
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
46
แน1k
Terms & Conditions
โข
Privacy Policy
โข
Sweepstakes Rules
Browse
Election
News
About
Sign in